A/X Growth Portfolio 2020

Live Blog

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Dec 22, 2020

New Addition to A/X Growth

I am adding Upstart Holdings (UPST) @ $42 to the portfolio. 

Upstart is an AI Lending platform that partners with banks to help them underwrite better quality loans. This innovative platform will allow more consumer loans to be written at lower loss rates. 

Investment report is coming soon.

A/X Growth now has 15 positions. 

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Dec 19, 2020

On Dec 4, 2020, I removed FAANG from the portfolio. 
Now, I am adding it back. 

This will be messy and confusing if I am stopping and starting securities purchases. My goal is to focus on growth companies and have a small portfolio list, but I guess I will let things be. Over time, I may add like 2-5 companies a year and that will grow the total amount of holdings. I will put more weight on my newer and faster growers. 

For the moment, I will keep Zoom off the list. 
You can't make money tomorrow if you overpay today. 

I see some good businesses but they are overpriced, and I will wait for better entry points. 

A/X Growth has 14 positions. 

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Dec 14, 2020

2020 has been the year of "Demand exceeding Supply."
In Economics 101, we learn that when demand exceeds supply, prices rise. 
There you go!

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Dec 11, 2020

There are four stages in business: startup, growth, maturity, and decline.
And in each stage there is: early-stage, mid-stage, and late-stage.

I am a growth investor and I look for solid growth ideas.
I plan to replicate my growth investing, over and over again. This investment model will work out well for me. 

I prefer not to invest in startups anymore.
Years ago, I invested in Tesla, when it was a public startup, and I wouldn't want to do it again. There is too much risk and I have less expertise in that phase. Now, I wait until the company or idea has passed the critical startup phase to potentially invest or invest more.

Tesla passed the critical startup phase in late 2019. I invested. 
Bitcoin has passed the critical startup phase. I am investing.
Virgin Galactic, a public startup, is still in the critical startup phase. I am not investing.

You have to be very comfortable on how you invest. It's your money or someone else's money that you are managing. You have to find out the investment model that will work out best for you. 

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Greed has taken over. 
Stocks are overvalued.
Capitalism is broken. 
Society is falling.
IPOs are overbought.
Dollar is overprinted.

Bitcoin has value.
Bitcoin is my biggest position.
Long GBTC.

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Dec 4, 2020

Removal of FAANG from A/X Growth

1) Alphabet
2) Amazon
3) Apple
4) Facebook
5) Netflix

FAANG has had a nice run. I have decided to remove these five positions from my active buying list. I don't recommend to sell, but I am not looking to add any new FAANG shares. I plan to add newer growth stocks to replace these positions.

Currently, A/X Growth has 9 active positions. 

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Dec 2, 2020

Removal of Zoom from A/X Growth

1) Zoom (ZM

Start Price: $389 Sep 10, 2020
Stop Price: $411 Dec 2, 2020
Return: 5.6%

Zoom is a great business, but it is dam overvalued. After looking at the current financials and expected growth, I see little upside in the next five years. The risk/reward is not favorable. Therefore, I have decided to remove Zoom from the active A/X Portfolio. I had added Zoom privately, in the beginning of the year, when it was around $60 something. I regret not publicly adding it sooner. If the valuation becomes more fair, I may add it back. 

A/X Growth now consists of 14 active (active to buy) positions and 1 non-active (not active to buy) position.

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Oct 7, 2020

When I invest, I am generally looking for a 10x return within 10 years. So basically, I am looking for companies that can grow at least 26% per year. All of the stocks/investments in the A/X meet that initial requirement. Eventually, I need to add younger companies to make up for the slower growth of older companies. 

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Sept 30, 2020

New Addition to A/X Growth™

1) Palantir (PLTR) @ $11
Palantir is a software company that specializes in data analytics. Their custom software is used by governments and commercial entities worldwide to improve their operations. Palantir went public today and opened @ $10. 

A/X Growth now consists of 15 high-quality investments. Individual research reports will be available soon. Going forward, every investment recommendation I make carries an automatic "Outperform" rating. 

The performance goal for A/X Growth is to exceed the S&P 500. We do this by finding value in our available investment portfolio. We buy on a light, medium, and/or heavy basis. The strategy is to buy fairly valued investments on a normal "medium" basis, buy overvalued investments on a "light" basis, and buy undervalued assets on a "heavy" basis. We do not trade stocks and we buy to hold "forever." If the asset is way overvalued, then we will keep the money in cash until a good opportunity comes along. If the asset comes down in price, we will buy more. 

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Sept 18, 2020

New Addition to A/X Growth™

1) Moderna (MRNA) @ $68
Moderna is a biotech company that specializes in vaccines and therapeutics utilizing messenger RNA. mRNA-1273 is a leading candidate for the Covid-19 virus, and the Phase 3 results should be out by November. 

A/X Growth now consists of 14 high-quality investments. Individual research reports will be available soon. Going forward, every investment recommendation I make carries an automatic "Outperform" rating.

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Sept 10, 2020

Two Additions to A/X Growth™

1) Zoom Video (ZM) @ $389
Zoom is a digital communications platform that specializes in video conferencing.

2) Ethereum (ETH-USD) @ $365
Ethereum is a digital commodity that specializes in smart contracts. 

A/X Growth now consists of 13 high-quality investments - I plan to issue research reports on all of them. 

Zoom Video is currently overvalued and will correct itself - but I like the business and the company will be worth more longer-term.

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Sept 4, 2020

Quick Tutorial

Investing comes down to 2 things: Who do you want to partner with and what do you want to partner in? When you buy a stock, you become a small partner in a large business - you have to fully understand that before you buy a share. Being a public shareowner gives you the ability to share in the risks and rewards of the company, and the ability to partner in or partner out at any time. There are thousands of publicly-traded companies that are looking for new partners, and only about 10% of them are good to invest in. Remember, most public companies trade for private shareholder benefit and not for public shareholder benefit - you need to understand that too.

Becoming a partner in a large business is no different if you and your friend start a business tomorrow - the same rules and principles apply - you have to sell your products or services. Before you invest: you need to be comfortable with the management team, be knowledgeable about the business, and understand business fundamentals (important). Two main questions you want to ask: Is the CEO trustworthy and competent and is the business model sustainable for long-term growth? 

Once you find a good business with a good leader, you can partner with them forever. Why? Because there is no limit to how valuable a company can become. I have personally seen Amazon and Tesla grow from nothing to very large businesses - rewarding shareholders (partners) in the process. I was an early partner in these companies and then, I stopped being one. In the process, I missed out on massive gains. I have since learned my lesson. 

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Aug 17, 2020

Your confidence has to be greater than your fear. 

When the panic occurred in March 2020, mostly everyone was selling. Panic creates opportunity. That is the time when you buy when everyone else is selling. Prices are lower and you can get quality names cheaper. Robert Kiyosaki says, "You make money when you buy, not when you sell." Back then, all the fund managers were fully invested in stocks, so they had no choice but to sell to raise money for redemptions. That caused the market to go even lower. 

Cash is king. You always want to make sure you have enough cash around. You learn that when shit hits the fan occasionally.

At the moment, I see equities as fully valued...so I would be a light buyer today.

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Aug 13, 2020

Comment:
I have learned not to sell winners (such as Bitcoin, Tesla, Facebook, etc.) for a short-term profit. I have done that too many times. If you have something you like, you hold it forever. Just because the price is really high, it doesn't mean you have to sell. The price will eventually correct itself - and then, you can buy more at a discount. Remember, you are buying an asset that will be more valuable many years from now. You only want to sell when the fundamentals have deteriorated. 

You want to learn how to identify the game changers or turnarounds that can bring you phenomenal returns.

- Roy

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Aug 8, 2020
By Roy Philipose

The "A/X Growth Portfolio" seeks capital appreciation. It is a group of 10-20 high-quality stocks and investments. The investment strategy is long-only, the typical holding period is forever, and the goal is to beat the S&P 500. The majority of shares are technology-based and the portfolio has outperformed the S&P by a wide margin. The portfolio model was started in 2015 and is run by Roy Philipose, an independent investor. The portfolio will be typically updated every January. 

The keys to successful investing:
1) Knowing what to buy
2) Knowing when to buy
3) Knowing when to add
4) Knowing how long to hold
5) Knowing who to partner with

The good thing is that I have finally "cracked the code" on stocks. And it's all the way up from here!

Yahoo Finance A/X Growth Portfolio Link

A/X Growth Portfolio by Roy Philipose
5 Year Performance
Jan 2016Jan 2017Jan 2018Jan 2019Jan 20205 YearYTD Price
(8/7/2020)
S&P 500 Index$1,940.00$2,278.00$2,823.00$2,704.00$3,225.00166.24%$3,351.00
(Current) 11
Apple$97.00$121.00$167.00$166.00$309.00318.56%$444.00
Amazon$587.00$823.00$1,450.00$1,718.00$2,008.00342.08%$3,167.00
Beyond Meat$110.00$131.00
Bitcoin$368.00$970.00$10,221.00$3,547.00$9,350.002540.76%$11,573.00
Facebook$112.00$130.00$186.00$166.00$201.00179.46%$268.00
Google$778.00$820.00$1,182.00$1,125.00$1,432.00184.06%$1,498.00
Netflix$91.00$140.00$270.00$339.00$345.00379.12%$494.00
Roku$128.00$156.00
Square$46.00$71.00$74.00$147.00
Tesla$191.00$251.00$354.00$307.00$650.00340.31%$1,452.00
Zillow Group$21.00$35.00$44.00$34.00$46.00219.05%$79.00
Notes:
Square was added in Jan 2018.
Roku was added in Oct 2019.
Beyond Meat was added in Nov 2019.
(Past) Removed
Alibaba$101.00$204.00$168.00$206.00$252.00
Twitter$16.00$17.00$37.00
Under Armour$85.00$19.00$12.00$10.00
Shake Shack$34.00$35.00$51.00
PHYS (Gold)$9.00$9.00$16.00
Solar City
Lending Club$36.00$30.00$5.00
LinkedIn
Planet Fitness$14.00$21.00$50.00
Notes:
Solar City was acquired by Tesla.

LinkedIn was acquired by Microsoft.

©Roy Philipose 2020.

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