Roy Philipose

I have a passion for business and investing and use a combination of fundamental analysis, common business sense, and real world experience to pick stocks. I follow the investment advice of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and others. I primarily work in the financial field and have over 20 years (part-time) of stock picking experience, starting in 1997. Careerwise, my goal is to become a fund manager.


Last updated: June 2020

July 2, 2020

Outperform on Roku @ $128

July 2, 2020

Roku (ROKU) is an Internet based TV platform featuring free and premium content. Roku has a mobile app and they are the standard OS on many new television sets. Roku generates revenue with partnerships and ads in-between shows. They have established a TV guide on their channel and they continue to add new content. Roku is in a great position to capitalize in the shift from traditional TV advertising to Internet TV advertising. The company is growing and the outlook is strong. Anthony Wood is Roku's CEO. 

- Roy Philipose, Independent Analyst

Stock rating: 
Outperform (Buy)

- Exceed S&P 500 (benchmark) over next 12 months.

Roku: Outperform
Current Price: $128 (closing price, 7/1/2020)
Market Cap: $14B
Fair Value: $120
Target Price 12M: Unknown (short-term target prices are hard to predict)
Reason: Growth

Longer Term Outlook
10 Year Price Outlook: $1,200 by 2030
Basis: The company will grow at least 26% per year for the next 10 years. Therefore, the security will be worth 10x more than the fair value price. 

Company
Pros:
Emerging Brand
Good Content
International Growth
TV Set Standard
Break-even to Profitable Operations
Cons:
Competition (Netflix or Amazon may enter TV ads business)

Disclosure: Long Roku
Disclaimer: Investments may lose value

Copyright © Roy Philipose 2020. All rights reserved. 

June 29, 2020

Outperform on Tesla @ $1000 (TSLA)

June 29, 2020

Tesla (TSLA) is an automotive, battery, and solar manufacturer. They are a world-wide leader in the electronic vehicle space. Tesla cars are in demand and the company is generating cash on a regular basis. They are in a great position to capitalize on the shift from internal combustion engines to electronic drive and the shift from central energy production to distributed energy production. Tesla is growing and outlook for the company is strong. Elon Musk is Tesla's CEO.

- Roy Philipose, Independent Analyst

Stock ratings: 
Outperform (Buy) = Exceed Benchmark (S&P 500) over next 12 months.
Hold (Neutral)  = In Line with Benchmark " "
Underperform (Sell) = Underachieve Benchmark " "

Tesla: Outperform
Current Price: $1009 (closing price)
Fair Value: $700
Target Price 12M: $1000 (Target prices are hard to predict)
Reason: Growth
Bear case: $500
Bull case: $1000

Earnings Outlook:
12M (Q3/20-Q3/21): $13.00

Personal Buy Ratings:
Buy Light @ $1000s (Normal risk with normal reward)
Buy Medium @ $700s (Less risk with more reward) 
Buy Heavy @ $500s (Least risk with most reward) 

Longer Term Outlook
10 year: $10,000 by 2030

Company Pros/Cons:
Pros:
Strong Demand
Quality Product
Generally Profitable
Cash Flow Positive
Environmentally Friendly
Employee Owners
Cons:
Elon Musk (company dependent)

Disclosure: Long Tesla
Disclaimer: Investments may lose value

Copyright © Roy Philipose 2020. All rights reserved. 

March 21, 2020

Bitcoin: Outperform (Moderate Buy) @ $6,100

March 21, 2020
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)

Bitcoin is an independent cryptocurrency that allows you to transfer value, person-to-person, without the use of any central bank or government. Bitcoin is seen as a digital store-of-value and considered as an alternative to gold. I see wider Bitcoin use and future acceptance as a regulated worldwide digital commodity. The outlook for Bitcoin is positive and the current price of $6,100 reflects a buying opportunity for long-term holders. The price of Bitcoin may drop in the short-term, but will strongly rise in the long-term.

Bitcoin is available via Coinbase.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) holds Bitcoin and is available via traditional brokerage accounts.

- Roy Philipose, Independent Stock Analyst

Personal Rating
Buy Medium @ $6000s
(Buy Medium: Less risk with more reward)

Bitcoin/GBTC: Outperform (Moderate Buy) 
Current Price: $6,100 / GBTC $7.00
Target Price 12M: $10,000 / GBTC $11.00
Reason: Valuation
Bear case: $3,000
Bull case: $10,000

Bitcoin Outlook
5 year: $50,000
10 year: $500,000

Pros:
Heavy interest
Decentralized
Easy to own
Bitcoin trades 24/7
Global (worldwide)
Alternative to gold

Cons:
No official US acceptance (filings)
Illegal market use (marketed)
Considered speculative (volatile)

Disclosure: Long GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust)
Disclaimer: Investments may lose value

March 19, 2020

Stock Ratings Update: Beyond Meat, Tesla, Roku

The stocks I like going forward are Tesla, Roku, and Beyond Meat. These growth companies are leaders in the field and continue to innovate.

-Roy Philipose, Independent Stock Analyst

Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings...

3/19/2020
Beyond Meat: Hold (Neutral)
Current Price: $54
Target Price 12M: $65
Reason: Market Conditions

3/19/2020
Tesla: Hold (Neutral)
Current Price: $372
Target Price 12M: $450
Reason: Market Conditions

3/18/2020
Roku: Outperform (Moderate Buy)
Current Price: $69
Target Price 12M: $80
Reason: Market Conditions

Disclosure: Long TSLA, ROKU, BYND
Disclaimer: Investments may lose value