I am an individual investor. I use common business sense, real-world experience, and fundamental analysis to pick stocks. I have learned from the writings of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Philip Fisher, and Robert Kiyosaki. My goal is to become a top portfolio manager. I am from Philadelphia and I have been an investor since 1997.
Experience: 25 Years
Education: BA, SNHU 2022
Disclosure: Long A/X Growth.
Disclaimer: Investments may lose value.
You Bet Against Elon Musk, "Super Genius", And Lost! Twice!
(This was supposed to be my 2nd article attempt on Seeking Alpha, but was rejected. Why read the same kind of articles, over and over again?)
I would like to talk about those who shorted Tesla Motors and SolarCity. Here
is some background on the companies.
know, Tesla Motors makes premium electric cars and SolarCity is a solar
electric supplier. Elon Musk is a major shareholder of both companies, with
Musk being Ceo/Chairman of Tesla and Chairman of Solarcity.
went public at $17 in June 2010 and Solarcity went public at $8 in Dec 2012.
Both companies at the time were considered to be overvalued and thought to be
future failures, especially Tesla. So naturally short-sellers (investors who
bet against the stock) bought in short. There were of course people who
believed in what there were doing and bought in long (myself included, though I
bought in at later prices and traded the stocks).
companies went public, continued to progress (with some problems), and
continued to grow. With each quarter passing, it was obvious the companies
would not fail. Yet the short sellers continued to bet against the stock,
primarily due to "gross valuation."
eventually came down from its peak of $194 to $120, but quickly climbed back
(thanks to short sellers and positives) to $194 the day before Q4 earnings.
Again, both companies report positive news and the stocks continue to
accelerate higher. On my blog postings, I recommended Tesla at $35 and
SolarCity at $16. Last I checked, Tesla was at $253 and Solarcity $84.
were many opportunities for the short sellers to cover your bet, especially
against Tesla. On April 1, 2013, an announcement was made by Elon that Tesla
would be profitable. (Peter Lynch said, "Wait till the story
improves.") At that point the stock opened at $42. That day was also a
good day to "Buy", as the uncertainty was much lower. On Oct 11,
2013, SolarCity announced "double volume" of megawatts installation.
The stock was at $47. Again, you had chances to cover, but didn't. Elon gave
shorts have been winning the battles, but losing the war. I am not sure why
they continue to bet against these companies. My observation is that "You
short something that has no value." These companies had "some
value" in the beginning and now they continue to have even "more
long, many shorts and longs listened to critic, John Petersen. I know, a few
times, he shook me out of my early Tesla long positions. He is a smart guy, but
Elon is smarter and has proven that. One saying I have is, "Be careful of
the know-it-alls who don't have-it-all." Academics are known for that.
SolarCity and Tesla are "publicly traded startups." Normal "fundamental
analysis" valuation was difficult to apply here. But should be able to do, at a later date. (This part was a concern to SA, so I corrected it.)
my main point; you bet against a "Super Genius." The only way you are
going to win that bet is that you are a "super genius" yourself. And
I guarantee that no one who shorted was a "SG". That is right, not
one. Maybe a few geniuses and that is it. You shorted twice and now got burned
twice. I would highly recommend to the "shorts", that you leave both
companies alone and exit your positions. A fellow "SG" is giving you
this advice. "We eventually learn from our repeated mistakes" and I
hope that you will too.
I will continue to partner with Elon Musk. The current stock valuations seem
high, but there is still plenty of growth available. Even if the stock prices
come down, I will continue to partner with Elon. I have learned my lesson from
that. We need energy and we need transport. Solarcity will be providing the
energy and Tesla will be providing the transport. Their valuations will
continue to increase and the stock prices will eventually reflect that (Warren
By Roy Philipose ----------------- AXGrowth.com The A/X Growth Portfolio is an investment model run by Roy Philipose. ------------------ S = AC < MP Success equals average cost being less than market price. ------------------ Investor An investor's role is to multiply capital. There are three steps: Identify assets that can increase in value. Allocate funds for purchase or exchange. Manage investments for gains. ----------------- Dec. 21, 2021 Uncertainty, TipRanks, and Year End There has been a major correction going on since November. Certain over-valued stocks have been hit to more right-sized valuations. The portfolio took some hits in certain names, such as Moderna. The Omicron variant is in full swing and may cause issues within the economy. Stocks prices may stay depressed. I will continue to stay long, but asset allocate because I have no choice. The economic growth is not really there. I see 2-3% GDP growth as pitiful, especially when the U.S. prints so much money. We
Updated: December 18, 2020 by Roy Philipose What could have been... I want to share my investing history with you. I want to show you why "investing" is better than "trading." I see so many young investors trading today. I know because I was one 20 years ago. I have been investing since 1997 when I bought my first shares of Cisco stock. I remember that day - I bought 100 shares of Cisco at $54; then the next day, sold at it $56 for a 2 point profit. (Cisco reported better than expected earnings.) I thought this was cool. I kept doing this for a long time, over many years - buying/selling shares and eventually, trading options. I thought I was an investor, but in reality, I was simply a trader. My gross trading profits were ~ $300K over a total 23 year period. I remember all of the significant companies I held. These were the shares that I was supposed to HOLD, and not trade. Eventually, my years of on and off trading resulted in me being wiped out twice. Sometimes