Tesla: Outperform @ $1000
Tesla Update: Live Blog ------------------ Oct 21, 2020 Current Rating: Buy Current Price: $422 12M Target Price: N/A 5Y Target Price: $1,165 Fair Value Price: $325 (Fair value is based on 7x 2021 Revenue of $35 Billion ($260 share value) plus 25% premium ($65 additional value) to take private) Revenue Estimate: $35 Billion for 2021 (Estimate is based on Auto sales of 700K x ASP of $50K) Outstanding Shares (Q3, 2020) : 937 Million Comment RE: Q3, 2020 The company released positive quarterly numbers and sales outlook. Topics discussed on the earnings call include: autonomy software feedback, autonomy being a major margin contributor in the future, improving product affordability, Megapack and solar being big next year, Tesla being a startup of startups, and Tesla's internal manufacturing expertise. 5 Year Target price of $1,165 is based on 35% compound growth rate. (Fair value of $260 a share x 4.48 multiplier) Based on the overall valuation and growth prospects, I hav...